It is becoming apparent that bringing about regime change in Iran will be a major foreign policy objective during Bush's next term. To understand the Persian-American conflict, it is important to look at the threat that Iran poses to American interests, the geopolitical importance of Iran, and the history of America in Iranian affairs. Understanding the context and background of this conflict allows one a stronger foundation on which to mobilize against a potentially devastating war.
Iran's threat to American hegemony in the Middle East
A military conflict between the United States and Iran seems to be inevitable. Iran may, at some point in the near future, present a major threat to US dominance in the Middle East. Rather than redefining its foreign policy and being forced to limit its hegemony, the US government will almost certainly attempt to destroy the threat and conquer Iran, if it is given the chance.
In order to understand the impending conflict in Iran, it is important to understand the paradigm within which the US foreign policy operates in general. The US foreign policy has been primarily focused on achieving two objectives, often simultaneously. Obviously, a major goal has been the expansion of the American economic, political, and military empire. In the past, the US has been concerned mostly with controlling resources and economic markets, often invading third world countries whose policies were opposed to capitalist globalization, justifying this imperialism as 'humanitarian intervention,' and then installing a pro-American puppet government. Invading Iran is certainly a top priority for the militant globalists in Washington and fits into this foreign policy framework.
However, the US has also needed to contain potential military, economic, or political rivals who might become powerful enough to threaten US dominance in any of these three categories. These actions can be understood as an attempt to maintain and perpetuate an empire, the unipolar world that has existed since the demise of the Soviet Union. In the future, as the US largely accomplishes the first goal by bringing all geopolitically important areas under its rule, the focus of US foreign policy will shift from expanding the empire to protecting the global status quo.
A major aspect of the maintenance of America's global status has been the campaign to ensure that no state with policies adverse to American rule obtains nuclear weapons that could be used to keep US hegemony in check. Not surprisingly, the two states left in the 'Axis of Evil' (North Korea and Iran) are the two states opposed to the US that potentially could create nuclear weapons (India and China, while not strictly ruled by the American Global System, are far too powerful to be confronted directly). The Non-Proliferation Treaty, which could have been a major victory in the cause for world peace, has instead been abused by the United States too ensure that a peer nation never arises and is never allowed to threaten American dominance.
Iran is certainly a strategically important country, with nearly 89.7 billion barrels of oil in its reserves, which are larger than any other country currently outside the globalized economy. However, aside from the oil, the Bush administration may also be compelled to attack Iran because of its nuclear developments.
There is still no conclusive evidence of any kind that Iran has any intention of building nuclear weapons. Russia's President Vladimir Putin is apparently convinced that Iran's nuclear program is not meant to be used to build weapons. "The latest steps on Iran's behalf persuade us that Iran has no intention of building an atomic weapon. Consequently, we will continue to cooperate with Iran in all fields, including in nuclear energy." [1] Iran voluntarily subjected itself to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspections, which found only minor violations of protocol.
By suggesting that by developing a nuclear program (which Iran claims is to be used for peaceful purposes) Iran is intending to build nuclear weapons, Bush certainly may be merely attempting to play the WMD card a second time as a justification for an oil war. Certainly, that is part of the administration's strategy, but they are also genuinely concerned (and were genuinely concerned in the case of Iraq) about the prospect of another nuclear power in the Middle East.
Currently, the only nuclear power in the Middle East is Israel, giving the United States the freedom to act with impunity, as it has on countless occasions, causing much political turmoil and humanitarian crisis in pursuit of their geopolitical interests. If a leading Islamic nation were to develop nuclear weapons, the concept of MAD (mutually assured destruction) could be reintroduced into the global conflict between the west and Islam; this would reinstate a much needed degree of balance, and America's hawks would be forced to be slightly more cautious and less coercive throughout the entire Middle East. It is highly unlikely that Iran would use nuclear weapons against the largest super power in the world or its greatest ally, Israel; doing this would mean almost certain annihilation for Iran or any other country.
Can the US conceivably prepare to attack Iran, after a war in Iraq that damaged it both economically and militarily? According to some Seymour Hersh, the US may already be engaged in covert military actions in Iran, and if not, people within the government are at least considering the possibility of attacking Iran. "In my interviews, I was repeatedly told that the next strategic target was Iran. "Everyone is saying, 'You can't be serious about targeting Iran. Look at Iraq,'" the former intelligence official told me. "But they say, 'We've got some lessons learned-not militarily, but how we did it politically."" says Hersh [2].
Another option, possibly more viable, would be to allow Israel to preemptively attack Iran. Both Cheney and Bush have publicly said that they would support such an action. "One of the concerns people have is that Israel might do it without being asked, that if, in fact, the Israelis became convinced the Iranians had significant nuclear capability, given the fact that Iran has a stated policy that their objective is the destruction of Israel, the Israelis might well decide to act first, and let the rest of the world worry about cleaning up the diplomatic mess afterwards," said Cheney [3]. "Israel is our ally, and in that we've made a very strong commitment to support Israel, we will support Israel if her security is threatened," Bush added more recently [4]. Such an attack could unleash another far more deadly Arab-Israeli war and would escalate the conflicts in the Middle East to a new, unprecedented level of havoc.
The Bush Administration would certainly like to attack Iran at some time during the next four years, presumably before Iran gets a chance to develop nuclear weapons that would restrict American action in the Middle East. Iran seems to take this threat seriously; they recently signed a mutual defense pact with Syria, a country that has also been receiving a good deal of criticism from the US since the death of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (who had called for a withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon). Ostensibly, the pact was an attempt to form a united front in case of an attack by the US on either country. The announcement came shortly after an unidentified aircraft fired a missile in the province of Bushehr, the site of Iran's nuclear power plant.
Operation Ajax and America's Ugly History in Iran
The neoconservatives in the Bush Administration will also attempt to build their case for war by disseminating propaganda about the nature of the theocracy in Iran, its abuse of human rights, and its opposition to democracy, it is highly unlikely that there will be any discussion of Iran before the Revolution of 1979. This is because, like the Taliban and Saddam Hussein (both of whom received funding from the US government whilst waging wars against enemies of the US) the theocracy in Iran would never have come to power had it not been for actions taken by the US.
The Iranian Revolution was a direct reaction against the US supported regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Reza Pahlavi replaced his father in 1941, shortly before his 22nd birthday, when his father was forced to abdicate by the British due to his close ties to Nazi Germany. The Shah was an egregious and corrupt tyrant, a major human rights violator, and a beloved ally of the United States, who sent him a steady supply of arm shipments and financial support. He imprisoned hundreds of political activists, enforced strict censorship laws, and frequently assassinated political dissidents. His economic policies created an enormous gap between the wealthy and the poor in Iran. He operated his own secret police force (known as SAVAK), co-founded by the CIA, which was and given unlimited power to arrest, torture, place under surveillance, and assassinate Iranians, especially members of dissenting political organizations.
It is interesting to compare these crimes committed by the Shah to those of the current Iranian regime as reported by Amnesty International. Their crimes are nearly indistinguishable from one another.
Scores of political prisoners, including prisoners of conscience, continued to serve sentences imposed in previous years following unfair trials. Scores more were arrested in 2003, often arbitrarily and many following student demonstrations. At least a dozen political prisoners arrested during the year were detained without charge, trial or regular access to their families and lawyers. Judicial authorities curtailed freedoms of expression, opinion and association, including of ethnic minorities; scores of publications were closed, Internet sites were filtered and journalists were imprisoned. At least one detainee died in custody, reportedly after being beaten. During the year the pattern of harassment of political prisoners' family members re-emerged. At least 108 executions were carried out, including of long-term political prisoners and frequently in public. At least four prisoners were sentenced to death by stoning while at least 197 people were sentenced to be flogged and 11 were sentenced to amputation of fingers and limbs. The true numbers may have been considerably higher. [5]
The fact that the US government supported a dictator whose crimes are so similar in nature to those committed by the regime presently in power should be enough evidence of the cynical nature of Bush's crusade for democracy in Iran. If the Bush Administration decides to invade, it will build its case on 'replacing tyranny with democracy;' however, an important fact will never enter mainstream debate on the issue is the fact that just over half a century ago, the US did the exact opposite and replaced a democratically elected government with a tyranny.
The time of greatest prospect for an Iranian democracy was in 1951 with the election of a new prime minister by the Iranian parliament, Mohammed Mossadegh. Mossadegh was popular among the people, and passed key reforms such as the abolition of the centuries-old feudal agriculture system. However, he faced staunch opposition from the US and Britain when he enforced the Oil Nationalization Act, putting the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, which was worth hundreds of millions of dollars under public control. At that time, Iran only received only 16% of the profit from the oil, with the British receiving the rest of the profit. The British and the Americans felt threatened not only because The Anglo-Iranian Oil Company was the largest British company at that time but also because they feared the global spread of nationalism that encouraged the autonomous political and economic rule in the third world might put first world interests in danger.
The British and the Americans agreed that Mossadegh was a threat, and when Mossadegh's political base proved to be too powerful for their initial political intimidation, they decided to orchestrate a covert coup, codenamed Operation Ajax, to reinstate the Shah. Politicians, journalists, and religious leaders were bribed and enlisted to spread propaganda attacking Mossadegh. When an attempt to have Mossadegh arrested by bribed military officials failed, the American officials hired Iranians who were to claim to be pro-Mossadegh communists and start a riot in the streets in which mosques would be defaced and stores would be looted. This event severely hurt Mossadegh's reputation and legitimacy. Mossadegh was finally captured and arrested after a gun battle in front of his home that killed 100 people. The Shah was returned to power and his violent regime resumed control.
In 1979, 26 years after Iran's brief experience with democracy, a revolution finally began against the Shah. In the early stages of the revolution, a vast array of social and political groups collaborated in an attempt to overthrow the Shah, including members of the middle class, small businessmen, liberals, secularists, Marxists, anarchists, and a various religious groups. On Sept 8, when a massive protest broke out in Iran, the Shah launched a military attack on the protesters, killing hundreds. At this point, the Shah's army began to defect, and the Shia cleric and leading member of the religious opposition Ayatollah Khomeini began to gain widespread public support. The group of Shiite religious leaders seized control of the country, and has held it until today.
There would be no theocracy in Iran today if it had not been for the US' actions, which fostered great feelings of (legitimate) anti-Americanism throughout the Middle East and demonstrated the US' opposition to democracy in the region. Had the Iranian people been given control over their own affairs, they would never have become a 'failed state' and a hot bed for religious extremists. It is because they were brutally oppressed by the Shah that they reacted so violently and such radical views took hold among portions of the population, although certainly not all of it. The US created the situation in Iran that allowed for a fundamentalist regime, and whether or not it wants to claim ownership, the Iranian theocracy is indeed America's creation.
Operation Ajax led to a new era of American intervention and imperialism. It was the first time they had fought against a democratically elected government solely to advance their interests and the first time they had covertly sponsored a coup. The repercussions of Operation Ajax have been felt throughout the Middle East. It became a template of sorts to be used in future acts of regime change to dispose of leaders who threatened American interests. The year following the coup in Iran, the US staged a similar coup in Guatemala against a democratic leader, again accusing him of communist leanings, and again because US (fruit) interests were threatened. Since that time, the US has engaged in similar military actions on countless other occasions.
Iran under the Shah also became a model example for the US as a Middle Eastern leader: pro-American and authoritarian and brutal enough to crush a populace that is largely opposed to American dominance in the region. Saudi Arabia is an excellent example of such a country. The US has been the main impediment to human rights and democracy in the Middle East throughout the last 50 years by supporting such atrocious regimes as the one in Turkey, who has committed two acts of near genocide (the Armenians and the Kurds), Israel, Pakistan, the Taliban, Saddam Hussein during the Iraq-Iran wars, and the aforementioned royals of Saudi Arabia. Now Bush and the neoconservatives are proclaiming their allegiance to democracy in the region, and intent on conquering countries to force them to accept it. Even if their motive was legitimate rather than cynical, it makes no sense to attempt to destroy the negative repercussions of an imperialistic military policy by employing that exact same system. This same logic would recommend taking a medicine to combat its own ill side-effects brought on by a previous usage. A democratic and autonomous Middle East must be fought for, but Bush's charade should fool no one, the US is still inhibiting democracy and human rights by supporting atrocious regimes of elites in the Middle East who are willing to do business with the US, and mercilessly invading those who will not.
Framing the debate
The devastating campaign against threats to the American global dynasty will continue, and, barring a diplomatic miracle, Bush will attempt to bring 'regime change' to Tehran sometime in the next four years. The situation has thus far not deviated from the build up to war two years ago at all; Bush is portraying a villainous Muslim enemy with a horrendous human rights record and ties terrorism that is trying to get hold of deadly WMD. The antiwar movement must begin to combat the war mongers by framing the public debate over the potential war in Iran within a framework that shows clearly the US interest in Iran's oil and in deterring nuclear proliferation by a leading Islamic nation and also emphasizes America's historical role in Iran, especially its support of the Shah and its action to destroy a democratic government. Otherwise, the Bush Administration's propaganda will succeed in swaying public opinion towards another brutal and devastating imperialistic war.